Car sales edged up 0.9 per cent in January from a year earlier;China Automobile Association: the market will be affected by positive and negative factors in the first quarter
At the beginning of 2022, China’s auto market still shows a stable development trend against the background of a high base of the same period last year.According to the latest production and sales data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) on February 18, China produced and sold 2.422 million and 2.531 million automobiles in January 2022, down 16.7% and 9.2% month-on-month respectively, and up 1.4% and 0.9% year-on-year respectively.From the perspective of sub-models, supported by a slight improvement in chip supply and driven by some local policies to encourage automobile consumption, passenger cars performed better than the overall level, and the production and sales continued to grow steadily year-on-year.Commercial vehicle production and sales sequential and year-on-year still continued the downward trend, and the year-on-year decline is more significant.The export performance of new energy and automobile is still outstanding, maintaining rapid growth year on year.In terms of the passenger car market, in January this year, the production and sales of Passenger cars in China were 2.077 million and 2.186 million respectively, down 17.8% and 9.7% from the previous month, and up 8.7% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, which provided strong support for the stable development of the automobile market.RGL association analysis pointed out that before the Spring Festival market demand continues to rebound, combined with the chip supply continues to improve, passenger car companies to welcome the New Year “good start” actively, dealers also significantly increase the intensity of terminal is favorable, but some companies affected by the local epidemic, sales growth has slowed, and passenger car sales have fallen month-on-month, but compared to the same continues the stable growth.In terms of vehicle types, in the four categories of passenger vehicles, compared with the previous month, the production and sales of sedan, SUV, MPV and fork passenger vehicle all declined, among which MPV and crossover passenger vehicle saw a more obvious decline, both of which fell in double digits month-on-month in January.Compared with the same period of last year, the production and sales of MPV decreased slightly, while cars, SUVs and fork-type passenger cars showed varying degrees of growth. The monthly production and sales of SUV were 100.7 and 105.7 respectively. Both the overall production and sales and the year-on-year growth rate were higher than that of passenger cars.Year-on-year growth in January was 29.3 per cent and 78 per cent, respectively.By brand, a total of 1.004 million new cars of Chinese brand passenger vehicles were sold in January, down 11.7% from the previous month and up 15.9% from the previous year. Although there was a decrease in the previous month, it maintained rapid growth year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than the overall industry.Among the major foreign brands, compared with last month, the sales of German brands increased slightly, the decline of Japanese and French brands was slightly lower, and the American and Korean brands all showed a rapid decline;Compared with the same period of last year, the sales growth rate of France is still rapid, the German and American departments showed a small increase, and the Japanese and Korean departments showed a decline, among which the Decline of The Korean brand is more obvious.In terms of market share, Sales of Chinese brand passenger vehicles accounted for 45.9% of total passenger vehicle sales in January, up 3.7 percentage points from the same period last year.From the development trend of the past two years, the market share of Chinese brand passenger vehicles has maintained a high momentum of growth since April 2021.In 2021, a total of 9.543 million new cars were sold for self-branded passenger vehicles, up 23.1% year on year and accounting for 44.4% of the total passenger vehicle sales, hitting a new high in the past decade.) research analysts point out that in 2021 the surge of the independent brand market share, mainly from three aspects, one is the mainstream independent brand passenger car have achieved good results, with the Great Wall of wei, cobolli gigli led, as a representative of the brand and even the independent brands to quantity and quality of a new stage of development;Second, the explosive growth of new energy vehicles, with “Wei Xiaoli” as the representative of the newly built car brands with a continuously high delivery volume, also contributed to the improvement of the market share of independent brand passenger cars;Third, in the context of core shortage in the industry in 2021, independent brands respond positively to the market and adjust business strategies flexibly, timely making up the market gap of similar products in Germany and Japan.The analyst also said that In 2022, Chinese brand passenger vehicles will continue to occupy the first place in the market, but in the medium and long term, it is necessary to continue to do well in products and improve the cost performance of the brand, especially in the second half of 2022, the United States, Japan and other car companies will focus on the electrification field in 2023, independent brands will face threats.In terms of the commercial vehicle market, in January 2022, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 345,000 and 344,000 respectively, down 9.3% and 5.5% respectively from the previous month, and down 28.0% and 25.0% respectively from the previous year.It can be seen that the production and sales of commercial vehicles continued to decline from the previous month and year on year, and the year-on-year decline was significant.Association analysis pointed out that, with the gradual depletion of policy dividend, as well as the weakening of transport market demand and other factors, the commercial vehicle market in the short term has been difficult to show the development trend of the first half of last year.Commercial vehicle production and sales decline in its various models are more obvious.Specifically, passenger cars and trucks in January production and sales on a year-on-year decline.Among them, truck production and sales decreased by 29.0% and 25.8% respectively.Passenger car production and sales fell 14.9 percent and 15.8 percent year-on-year respectively.From the passenger and cargo segmentation model, truck, heavy, medium truck sales still declined significantly, light truck although also showed a decline, but significantly better than heavy, medium truck, this month micro truck sales growth significantly.Among buses, only the sales of large buses increased year on year, while the other two types of models all showed a decline.It is worth noting that the overall downturn in commercial vehicles, the market performance of relevant enterprises is also difficult to be optimistic.Statistics show that among the top 15 commercial vehicle enterprise groups, only Changan (no.1), SAIC (no.3) and Chery (No.13) achieved positive sales growth, while the sales of the other 12 enterprise groups declined to varying degrees in January, with some enterprises even falling by more than 60%.In the mainstream commercial vehicle enterprises 2022 business annual meeting, the head of the enterprise market situation this year has been predicted, from the current market performance in January, this year’s commercial vehicle market “before low after high” situation can be foreseen.The growth of new energy vehicles is not reduced, the scale of production and sales in January far exceeded the same period and the performance of the dismal commercial vehicles, the new energy vehicle market is still a rare bright color.Data show that in January this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 452,000 and 431,000 respectively, up 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year respectively.In terms of models, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 367,000 and 346,000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2 times.The production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles both reached 85,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 2.0 times.The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles reached 142 units and 192 units respectively, up 3.9 times and 2.0 times year-on-year respectively.In November and December last year, the new energy vehicle market showed a strong growth momentum, so that the monthly production and sales kept breaking the historical record, from the previous two or three hundred thousand straight up to more than 40 or even 50 above.In view of this, this month’s sales of new energy vehicles failed to set a new record, but it still continues the trend of rapid growth last year, and the scale of production and sales is much higher than the level of the same period last year.From the perspective of enterprises, sales and concentration of new car manufacturers continued to increase in January.In January, sales of new car manufacturers reached 121,000 units, up 171.9 percent year on year.Concentration reached 4.8%, up 3 percentage points from a year earlier.It can be seen that new vehicle enterprises are growing into the backbone of China’s new energy vehicle market.In addition, in terms of market penetration rate, the market share of new energy vehicles reached 17% in January, and that of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.2%, which continued to be higher than the whole year last year.Combined with China’s “new energy vehicle industry development plan” mentioned in the “new energy vehicle sales penetration rate to reach 20% by 2025” goal, and then referring to the trend of 2021 new energy vehicle penetration rate, the industry believes that 20% penetration target is expected to be achieved as soon as this year.Also maintaining rapid growth is the export of automobiles.After the annual export volume exceeded 2 million for the first time in 2021, China’s auto export continued to develop well in January this year. 231,000 new cars were exported in the month, up 3.8% from the previous month and 87.7% from the previous year, which was a new high in the monthly export volume.By model, passenger car exports reached 185,000 units this month, down 1.1% month-on-month and up 94.5% year on year.Commercial vehicle exports reached 46,000 units, up 29.5% month-on-month and 64.8% year-on-year.This month, the export growth of new energy vehicles contributed 43.7 percent.In fact, China’s auto export market has performed relatively well since 2017, with a positive growth of 6% in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, the export declined by 13% due to the impact of the epidemic, but in 2021, it showed explosive growth with a year-on-year growth rate of 101%.Some analysis points out that under the impact of the global epidemic, the supply advantage brought by China’s complete industrial chain of automobiles is further amplified, especially the chip shortage is obviously good for China’s automobile export.Summary: Looking ahead to the first quarter, the association pointed out that the future development of the market needs to be cautiously optimistic, because the development of the automobile market will be affected by both positive and negative aspects.The positive factors are as follows: first, local governments will actively introduce policies related to steady growth to support relatively stable market demand;Second, the shortage of chip supply in the automotive industry is expected to continue to ease;Third, some passenger car companies have a good market expectation for 2022 and have set a high annual production target, which will also play a certain role in supporting the production and sales in the first quarter.The negative factors are as follows: first, the chip shortage still exists in the first quarter, and the industry is not greatly affected by chips in the first quarter of 2021, with a high base;Second, the spread of COVID-19 in China has also increased risks in the industrial and supply chains.Third, the current policy dividend of commercial vehicles has been basically exhausted, superimposed on the lack of demand in the transportation market, low freight rates, so in the future, commercial vehicles will be in a period of adjustment.